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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.