Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.